Posted by same guy as always on November 26, 2020 at 02:17:27:
In Reply to: Re: You'd be a terrible Athletic Director posted by Coach on November 25, 2020 at 12:38:43:
: : : : : : It's true most teenagers are at very low risk of experiencing serious complications from Covid.
: : : : : : BUT...
: : : : : : Those same teenagers have parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents, teachers, coaches, referees, and are capable of spreading the virus to anyone and everyone. Which simply means more cases, more serious complications, more deaths, more crowded hospitals, more stress on health care providers, and more damage to our economy.
: : : : : : I doubt it is worth it.
: : : : : : One thing I do think is an absolute no brainer right now, and that is lets stop pretending we're going to have all 3 levels playing. There is no chance FS/JV should be playing. That is just triple the risk for everyone. Sharing team rooms, locker rooms, gym, equipment, busses, etc. No thanks.
: : : : : : Varsity only IF anything at all.
: : : : : Sports are a VOLUNTARY activity, so those who have at-risk families can opt out. Problem solved. As for the refs and the coaches, they are also free to opt out, but I haven't talked to any who want to. And no need for buses, kids can figure out their own transportation.
: : : : : Thanks for bringing up the damage to the economy. That was all caused by the shutdown actually. Opening up is how we fix it, and not adding to the problem.
: : : : About the damage to the economy part, there have been new records of both cases and hospitalizations DAILY, and we aren't even at Thanksgiving. Eventually, even with no advisories from government, most would stay home on their own rather than risk certain illness, and businesses who braved Covid would not make enough money to stay open. Hospitals could only admit those with the best insurance. And of course American reputation would suffer, as we'd be the only hard-hit country stupid enough to be trying this.
: : : : With the virus absolutely raging in that scenario, the irony is our government wouldn't be able to release the vaccine without creating more chaos. The logistics would be staggering. You'd have to zone off cities with the military to prevent a rush on the vaccine, which would first be released to hardest hit areas (that were also deemed essential).
: : : : Stats and analytics on the recovery rate of Covid are irrelevant once you step into an overflowing hospital, the initial viral load adds to the danger for those infected with Covid. At some point, cardiac patients would have to be treated in ambulances rather than ICUs, and that point would come sooner if people were urged to do as they please during winter.
: : : : Back to basketball, your idea of students driving themselves would reek of privilege to many public school parents, whose households may or may not have the resources to get a car for their son/daughter. Have you been on many city buses? Hope you don't have a daughter who plays sports, if that's your plan for getting her to the game.
: : : : And even the families without any especially vulnerable members may have essential workers that will interact with other families over the course of winter...it would be like poisoning one ocean, thinking "it's only one ocean", but not realizing that all oceans and large seas are connected, and that poison will eventually spread everywhere.
: : : Again, facts are important and not sensationalized fear-mongering.
: : : I will speak to just Orange County for starters since I have those numbers handy. Cases, hospitalizations and ICU usage has increased over the last month. However, we are no where near records or capacity. We are currently at 428 hospitalizations of which 102 are in ICU. The records occurred in July with 722 hospitalized and 245 in ICU. Prior to Newsom mandating that all hospitals increase their capacity, Orange County had 5,367 regular beds and 670 ICU beds. It was projected by the Orange County Health Care Agency that approximately 1700 regular and 130 ICU beds have been added to the county's total. So let's do some math. Typical every day sees 66% of regular and 33% of ICU beds in use. That's about 3,550 regular and 220 ICU patients. Add our 428 regular and 102 ICU. That leaves us with about 3,000 regular and almost 500 ICU beds available. At our current rate of increase of about 250 regular and 50 ICU per month, our hospitals will be over run in about 10 months. Certainly no "raging virus" or overflowing hospitals in the next few months as the vaccine is distributed. So that scenario is not very realistic, but it might make good science fiction.
: : : Now let's get to basketball. The idea of players getting their own transportation, I believe, was meant to mean by their parents, not getting them each their own car. SMH! However, there's no reason for that. The team will be practicing and playing together, they can ride a bus together. The amount of possible additional exposure from sports is almost nil. Teams are already practicing and have been for months now. There have been no cases where high school teams have had outbreaks. If they're not passing it to one another, they won't be passing it to opponents. Most states, including several of the "hotbed" states, have been playing high school sports and their high school teams have been unaffected. They aren't getting it and they aren't spreading it.
: : : I'd like to add another little fact for those that like to quote the numbers. The CDC reported that last November over 2,000 people died from the flu. So far this November? Less than 50. It is in a database report on the CDC website.
: : : Wear a mask, social distance outside of your immediate contact group, wash your hands and go about your life.
: : No sensationalizing here - all major nations are taking similar measures, both left and right leaning - even smaller countries like Sweden.
: : If only the world could just wash hands and follow directions? If following directions is all we needed to do, wouldn't we be through this already? Telling people to stay within their contact group is great, if this is an option. Many workers are deemed essential; construction, factory, infrastructure of buildings, to name a few. And of course, hospitals.
: : The drop in flu deaths is due to social distancing, as hand washing and surface sanitizing combined with masks is cutting down on all airborne virii. And though there is a lot of number quoting by everyone, apparently only the CoronaBros understand what an exponent is. Team don't-tread-on-me seems to favor middle school math. "50 last month? So 50 per month then!" Sheesh.
: : The hospitals will never fill up in CA because our governor shuts down preemptively, while other states wait until hospitals are full, like Utah. If Utah fills up, that's one problem, but Utah is far less populated. If they strip down to essential services, their rate of transmission plummets. If a populated state does the same, the transmission from essential services and activities does not slow down as quickly.
: : It would be great if student athletes were all that was needed to have sports, but adults have to be present as well, and basketball is played in gyms of various sizes. Also, the allowance of such gatherings makes people more likely to disobey other orders. And of course if basketball is allowed, that means all gatherings up to at least 25 also must be permitted during those same months.
: : Parents being relied upon to drive the students to games is not realistic for public schools and even some private. Parents work, often at jobs in places they don't own. And even if the kids aren't showing any major symptoms, there have been positive tests among them. I doubt many get tested until they have symptoms, but weaker symptoms may go unnoticed and unreported, while the host is spreading the virus. Can't afford that in a state like CA.
: 2 quick responses to your response:
: 1. You say the spread is exponential, but the numbers show that it is not. It is increasing at a pretty even rate.
: 2. So you're saying we're doing everything right to stop the spread of the flu but everything wrong for Covid? Doesn't really make sense. Besides, the CDC also reported that doctor visits and hospital stays due to the flu increased by 25% this year over last year. So an increase in cases of 25% but a decrease in deaths of 97.5%. Sheesh!
: And one other thing to add: Both Texas and Wisconsin health departments did studies of their fall high school sports and determined that the athletes that participated were infected at a significantly lower rate than other students and that students were infected and a vastly lower rate than other people in their community. It's a shame we're ruining kids' lives because adults can't wrap their head around the fact that kids aren't in danger and their not spreaders either.
1. New Daily cases in California tripled in three weeks, according to the link provided by Let's Get Real. When you hear exponential increase, it means in new cases, as in two weeks, the positive-testing people from day 1 of said two weeks are mostly over it and no longer represent active cases.
This increase in new cases comes despite CA having more stringent measures than most states.
2. The flu is different. The human immune system has seen it before, and can identify flu strains more easily, provided an individual's resistance is high, and said individual doesn't have prolonged exposure to the infected.
This past year, the flu was expected to be more deadly than in other years, so that could have something to do with the increase in hospital stays. I never heard anything about a 97.5% decrease in deaths from the flu this past year, sounds like misinformation.
Covid is more covert, our immune systems haven't seen it before, so even brief exposure to an infected individual gives the virus a chance to take hold and cause symptoms. Mankind has not earned it's tolerance yet.
I have no problem with kids gathering to play sports, unfortunately, if organized sports violate the state's set guidelines, and people find out (hint hint), they won't follow the guidelines either. Just as today, few in CA will obey Newsom and his directive to not gather for Thanksgiving, since he was caught at a large dinner with people outside of his household.
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