Re: You'd be a terrible Athletic Director


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Posted by Coach on November 24, 2020 at 08:24:44:

In Reply to: You'd be a terrible Athletic Director posted by AD don't on November 24, 2020 at 00:55:48:

: : : It's true most teenagers are at very low risk of experiencing serious complications from Covid.

: : : BUT...

: : : Those same teenagers have parents, aunts, uncles, grandparents, teachers, coaches, referees, and are capable of spreading the virus to anyone and everyone. Which simply means more cases, more serious complications, more deaths, more crowded hospitals, more stress on health care providers, and more damage to our economy.

: : : I doubt it is worth it.

: : : One thing I do think is an absolute no brainer right now, and that is lets stop pretending we're going to have all 3 levels playing. There is no chance FS/JV should be playing. That is just triple the risk for everyone. Sharing team rooms, locker rooms, gym, equipment, busses, etc. No thanks.

: : : Varsity only IF anything at all.

: : Sports are a VOLUNTARY activity, so those who have at-risk families can opt out. Problem solved. As for the refs and the coaches, they are also free to opt out, but I haven't talked to any who want to. And no need for buses, kids can figure out their own transportation.

: : Thanks for bringing up the damage to the economy. That was all caused by the shutdown actually. Opening up is how we fix it, and not adding to the problem.

: About the damage to the economy part, there have been new records of both cases and hospitalizations DAILY, and we aren't even at Thanksgiving. Eventually, even with no advisories from government, most would stay home on their own rather than risk certain illness, and businesses who braved Covid would not make enough money to stay open. Hospitals could only admit those with the best insurance. And of course American reputation would suffer, as we'd be the only hard-hit country stupid enough to be trying this.

: With the virus absolutely raging in that scenario, the irony is our government wouldn't be able to release the vaccine without creating more chaos. The logistics would be staggering. You'd have to zone off cities with the military to prevent a rush on the vaccine, which would first be released to hardest hit areas (that were also deemed essential).

: Stats and analytics on the recovery rate of Covid are irrelevant once you step into an overflowing hospital, the initial viral load adds to the danger for those infected with Covid. At some point, cardiac patients would have to be treated in ambulances rather than ICUs, and that point would come sooner if people were urged to do as they please during winter.

: Back to basketball, your idea of students driving themselves would reek of privilege to many public school parents, whose households may or may not have the resources to get a car for their son/daughter. Have you been on many city buses? Hope you don't have a daughter who plays sports, if that's your plan for getting her to the game.

: And even the families without any especially vulnerable members may have essential workers that will interact with other families over the course of winter...it would be like poisoning one ocean, thinking "it's only one ocean", but not realizing that all oceans and large seas are connected, and that poison will eventually spread everywhere.

Again, facts are important and not sensationalized fear-mongering.

I will speak to just Orange County for starters since I have those numbers handy. Cases, hospitalizations and ICU usage has increased over the last month. However, we are no where near records or capacity. We are currently at 428 hospitalizations of which 102 are in ICU. The records occurred in July with 722 hospitalized and 245 in ICU. Prior to Newsom mandating that all hospitals increase their capacity, Orange County had 5,367 regular beds and 670 ICU beds. It was projected by the Orange County Health Care Agency that approximately 1700 regular and 130 ICU beds have been added to the county's total. So let's do some math. Typical every day sees 66% of regular and 33% of ICU beds in use. That's about 3,550 regular and 220 ICU patients. Add our 428 regular and 102 ICU. That leaves us with about 3,000 regular and almost 500 ICU beds available. At our current rate of increase of about 250 regular and 50 ICU per month, our hospitals will be over run in about 10 months. Certainly no "raging virus" or overflowing hospitals in the next few months as the vaccine is distributed. So that scenario is not very realistic, but it might make good science fiction.

Now let's get to basketball. The idea of players getting their own transportation, I believe, was meant to mean by their parents, not getting them each their own car. SMH! However, there's no reason for that. The team will be practicing and playing together, they can ride a bus together. The amount of possible additional exposure from sports is almost nil. Teams are already practicing and have been for months now. There have been no cases where high school teams have had outbreaks. If they're not passing it to one another, they won't be passing it to opponents. Most states, including several of the "hotbed" states, have been playing high school sports and their high school teams have been unaffected. They aren't getting it and they aren't spreading it.

I'd like to add another little fact for those that like to quote the numbers. The CDC reported that last November over 2,000 people died from the flu. So far this November? Less than 50. It is in a database report on the CDC website.

Wear a mask, social distance outside of your immediate contact group, wash your hands and go about your life.


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