Posted by threat level (mellow) yellow on May 24, 2020 at 16:50:35:
In Reply to: Re: The real problem for restarting sports in high schools posted by Let's Get Real on May 24, 2020 at 09:44:37:
: : : : : : I posted this on April 28:
: : : : : : : : As of today, we've surpassed the one millionth case. We've also passed the 58,000 deaths mark.
: : : : : : As of today, May 16 we're up to 1,450,000 cases and 88,000 deaths. So a third of the deaths have occurred in the last two and a half weeks.
: : : : : : Walt's Dog
: : : : : May 21 - 93K deaths and 1.55 million cases, but, hey, let's re-open!
: : : : Some of those cases are no longer active, and Georgia is doing fine so far. They've been open for about two weeks. Florida received criticism but their death rates have been low, same with Texas. What do these states have in common? They're further South than many of the heavily affected states.
: : : : Spanish Flu receded in both the summers of 1919 & 1920, without cities being locked down (aside from sports) or treatments being found. It then returned with a vengeance during flu season. We can be better prepared this time around to stem that deadly second wave, which was the most deadly round of infections 100 years ago. Temperature checks and testing, along with surveillance-assisted contact tracing could stamp out an outbreak and prevent another lengthy lockdown.
: : : In 1920, many people did not have indoor plumbing in their homes, especially rural areas. Hospitals were slightly better than witch doctors and were typically where people were sent to die. Penicillin was years away from being discovered much less used effectively to fight infectious diseases. I think we can dispense with comparing the Spanish Flu with COVID-19. In today's day and age, COVID-19 is a minor annoyance.
: : : Oh, and to Hedy Lamarr - check the math below. (All facts, no opinions, just FYI)
: : : US COVID deaths - 96,370
: : : US Population - 331M
: : : 96,370 divided by 331M = 0.00029
: : : Also:
: : : Death rate in US from all causes - 0.7319% (2018 figures)
: : : In other words, COVID-19 is less dangerous than living.
: : : It would be great to trust our medical professionals to deal with this crisis, but unfortunately the politicians are the ones in charge and the ones making the decisions. The voices in the medical community that have been saying since day 1 that most of us only need to wash our hands and observe social distancing have been drowned out along with all common sense.
: : You missed the point on Spanish Flu. Of course that was worse, yet it subsided in the summer, even with the lack of medical advancements. Respiratory illnesses just do not spread well outside of flu season. Don't let this fool you, the flu lays dormant each summer as well, nearly disappearing until the weather turns.
: : For the record, Coronavirus will have killed 0.03% of the population this year through this weekend. 0.73% of the population died in 2018. It's quite confusing when you use a percentage for one and just regular long division on the other.
: : We are beating the virus. Unfortunately there is the Southern Hemisphere's winter to worry about, and worldwide travel may not be restricted enough to prevent the virus from returning North and giving us more vectors to deal with. Improved sanitation and modern medical technology are offset by greater population density and urbanization (80% of Americans live in urban areas as opposed to 50% in 1920), not to mention increased travel and promiscuity. Our medical advancements don't mean squat if PPE and ventilators run out, which almost happened in NYC.
: : The world has not established how many people have had the virus, or what level of resistance those people even have going forward. It is estimated roughly 3% of the US population has contracted the virus, and the deaths are nearing 100k. Staying open during a stubborn winter probably bumps up the death toll by a few hundred thousand, and helps seed the virus for a fall rebound. The good news is, it doesn't survive long on any surface.
: : What medical professionals (other than Levitt at Stanford, who is a chemist) said that washing hands and standing 6 feet away from people were the only two precautions needed? Sounds like something that would be said on a "Day 1". For many cities, even the "6 feet" precaution would require a partial lockdown and close most businesses anyway. The world is like a hillside of dry brush of which no more than 3% has burned; we can spot treat the embers, but too many at once will start another wildfire.
: Please stop using the name "new normal." That's the phrase government officials use when they want to let you know your civil liberties will never be returned. Can you please use something like "doom and gloom?"
: You're right on many of the points you make. I don't want to debate you on the finer points because I could spend all day doing research and no one will read it anyway because it's boring. I am trying to approach the situation from a practical point of view which unfortunately is missing from the landscape today.
: Is it practical for us to all stay home just because there is a virus out there that could potentially kill a small portion of the population? No. There are just no two ways about that. Forget the stock market - the economic ramifications of what we've done to the country over the last two months are going to haunt us for a long, long time. Increased national debt thanks to the relief payments (both the one-time payments and the ongoing payments to those who have filed unemployment, which has skyrocketed). Increased personal debt as consumers sit at home and spend money they don't have. Increased business debt for the small and mid sized businesses who have had to borrow to pay employees that weren't laid off and also to cover business expenses.
: Unfortunately, scare tactics used by the drama-addicted media have the sheep-like population like Walt and Hedy scared into hiding under their beds until someone signals all clear. (Who's going to signal all clear in this litigious age? No one. It's going to be like the terrorist alert system that never drops below yellow.) Politicians use this to control people. Goodbye freedoms.
: Life is a dangerous place. People die. It happens all the time. Some more people are going to die of COVID-19 no matter what we do. And if they don't die of COVID-19 then they will die from cancer (655K people in the US in 2018), heart disease (599K), preventable injury (167K), chronic lower respiratory diseases (159k), stroke (147k), Alzheimer's (147k), etc.
: When I pointed out in a different post that 98 people total had died of COVID-19 in Orange County vs a population of 3.18M I left something out. 55 of those deaths were aged 75 and older. Another 30 were 55 and older.
: What medical professionals said standing 6 feet apart and washing hands were the only precautions needed? My doctor, for one. No, he's not going to get up on TV and start debating the talking heads who like to shout louder as a substitute for rational debate. But he's happy to point out that there's nothing magical about COVID-19, and in fact as you pointed out the virus doesn't survive long without a host. Just like flu season, wash your hands and try to avoid close contact.
: I'm sure you've read of the studies in NY that showed that 13.9% of the population that was tested had COVID antibodies in their system. Most of those people never even knew they had been sick. The virus presents with extremely mild symptoms for many people, so it is not only possible but it is extremely likely that there are many, many more cases of COVID than we have currently accounted for. We all remember Rudy Gobert and his coronavirus case. Three of his teammates all tested positive for COVID-19. They are all fine now, as are all the other athletes who tested positive. 63 year olds Tom Hanks and his wife are also fine. People live through this, in fact most do.
: COVID is a real disease and yes it can kill people. But we have gone way overboard on shutting down the world. It's time now to get back to life.
The study also found 21% of NYC residents tested had antibodies, of course those tested were people leaving big box grocery and retail stores so perhaps this isn't a great scientific sample.
Convalescent Blood Plasma Therapy is reportedly not working well (per NYT), where antibodies from people who've had Covid-19 are transferred to the sick. This suggests low numbers of antibodies may not be enough to fight a large infection, and we have had reports of people being re-infected after being cleared. The flu has the ability to mask itself from the immune system for a time, perhaps this virus does as well. Probably why the flu shot is such a crap shoot.
I believe the shutdown was not just an attempt at saving lives, but was mainly to keep the most essential services from being overwhelmed. If gravely ill people's loved ones can't get them hospital care and have to watch them die at home, there would be civil unrest.
With resources limited as they are, an open New York would have so many coronavirus patients, going to the hospital for anything else would risk exposure (if the patient could even get admitted), and the patient would likely be part of an at-risk group to begin with.
End result is, workers would strike, consumers wouldn't feel comfortable going out knowing there's no safety net of medical care if they get sick, and the economy grinds to a halt - with freedom intact. Until the civil unrest forces martial law, at least. But before that, people would flee NY in large numbers, enough to seed infections in many other places.
Theoretically, if our country could handle more deaths without harming the supply chain, critical services, and health care, very little of the country would have shut down. Trump and the red state governors were loathe to give the order. Even Cuomo was hesitant. Now, if there were hospital beds and ventilators guaranteed for every seriously ill patient nationwide, what we just did would have been an irresponsible use of executive power.
Admittedly, smaller urban areas that were unconnected to major ones probably didn't need to do much more than what your physician advised. Many hospitals in less populated areas hardly saw a patient, and the shutdown left many with little to do. But world leaders saw staggering tolls and sudden increases in Italy, New York, Spain, England, France, and combined with conflicting reports on Wuhan, erred on the side of caution.
Watch South America in the coming months, if it can be contained in the high-density Brazilian favelas during their cooler season, we certainly have no excuses here. NYC doctors even want the city to open fully, as the worst is over.
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