Posted by new normal on May 24, 2020 at 00:10:39:
In Reply to: Re: The real problem for restarting sports in high schools posted by Let's Get Real on May 23, 2020 at 07:44:04:
: : : : I posted this on April 28:
: : : : : : As of today, we've surpassed the one millionth case. We've also passed the 58,000 deaths mark.
: : : : As of today, May 16 we're up to 1,450,000 cases and 88,000 deaths. So a third of the deaths have occurred in the last two and a half weeks.
: : : : Walt's Dog
: : : May 21 - 93K deaths and 1.55 million cases, but, hey, let's re-open!
: : Some of those cases are no longer active, and Georgia is doing fine so far. They've been open for about two weeks. Florida received criticism but their death rates have been low, same with Texas. What do these states have in common? They're further South than many of the heavily affected states.
: : Spanish Flu receded in both the summers of 1919 & 1920, without cities being locked down (aside from sports) or treatments being found. It then returned with a vengeance during flu season. We can be better prepared this time around to stem that deadly second wave, which was the most deadly round of infections 100 years ago. Temperature checks and testing, along with surveillance-assisted contact tracing could stamp out an outbreak and prevent another lengthy lockdown.
: In 1920, many people did not have indoor plumbing in their homes, especially rural areas. Hospitals were slightly better than witch doctors and were typically where people were sent to die. Penicillin was years away from being discovered much less used effectively to fight infectious diseases. I think we can dispense with comparing the Spanish Flu with COVID-19. In today's day and age, COVID-19 is a minor annoyance.
: Oh, and to Hedy Lamarr - check the math below. (All facts, no opinions, just FYI)
: US COVID deaths - 96,370
: US Population - 331M
: 96,370 divided by 331M = 0.00029
: Death rate in US from all causes - 0.7319% (2018 figures)
: In other words, COVID-19 is less dangerous than living.
: It would be great to trust our medical professionals to deal with this crisis, but unfortunately the politicians are the ones in charge and the ones making the decisions. The voices in the medical community that have been saying since day 1 that most of us only need to wash our hands and observe social distancing have been drowned out along with all common sense.
You missed the point on Spanish Flu. Of course that was worse, yet it subsided in the summer, even with the lack of medical advancements. Respiratory illnesses just do not spread well outside of flu season. Don't let this fool you, the flu lays dormant each summer as well, nearly disappearing until the weather turns.
For the record, Coronavirus will have killed 0.03% of the population this year through this weekend. 0.73% of the population died in 2018. It's quite confusing when you use a percentage for one and just regular long division on the other.
We are beating the virus. Unfortunately there is the Southern Hemisphere's winter to worry about, and worldwide travel may not be restricted enough to prevent the virus from returning North and giving us more vectors to deal with. Improved sanitation and modern medical technology are offset by greater population density and urbanization (80% of Americans live in urban areas as opposed to 50% in 1920), not to mention increased travel and promiscuity. Our medical advancements don't mean squat if PPE and ventilators run out, which almost happened in NYC.
The world has not established how many people have had the virus, or what level of resistance those people even have going forward. It is estimated roughly 3% of the US population has contracted the virus, and the deaths are nearing 100k. Staying open during a stubborn winter probably bumps up the death toll by a few hundred thousand, and helps seed the virus for a fall rebound. The good news is, it doesn't survive long on any surface.
What medical professionals (other than Levitt at Stanford, who is a chemist) said that washing hands and standing 6 feet away from people were the only two precautions needed? Sounds like something that would be said on a "Day 1". For many cities, even the "6 feet" precaution would require a partial lockdown and close most businesses anyway. The world is like a hillside of dry brush of which no more than 3% has burned; we can spot treat the embers, but too many at once will start another wildfire.
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