Stanford study being misinterpreted (again)


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Posted by Stanford banned on May 07, 2020 at 17:10:56:

In Reply to: Re: Stop reading Nat Review and watching OAN posted by Let's Get Real on May 07, 2020 at 12:22:22:

: The most important point about this disease is it isn't going to go away after time. There is no "staying in quarantine until it passes". There are two ways to "beat" it. Herd Immunity and/or a Vaccine. I think it's pretty obvious we can't stay in lockdown until there's a vaccine and as long as we're in lockdown we won't get anything close to herd immunity.

: Smartest thing that anyone on here has posted, except for me. Just for that, you get your "Let's Get Real" merit badge.

Well, that's not conceited at all. :-/

The lockdown wasn't about getting the virus to "pass", it was about buying time to gather resources, to avoid an actual panic, and keeping the possible fall/winter rebound in check as well. Don't underestimate the panic factor - panic isn't the de-evolved fighting over toilet paper - it's having a handful of respirators for a dozen new critical patients. Who gets them and who dies? (Hint: the people with the best insurance, and it doesn't end well)

The Stanford study is often incorrectly interpreted by laymen such as our Coach up above. The study used data from early March, when only 1k out of 2M tested positive for the virus in Santa Clara County, due in part to lack of extensive testing. 50-80 times that would be no more than 4% of the population of Santa Clara County. No study concludes that 16-30% of the United States has antibodies, as Coach suggested.

Not every infection involves an initial exposure to millions of virus particles, some start with only a few thousand. In these cases, fewer antibodies are needed. A subsequent larger infection would possibly overrun the same immune system. Resistance doesn't equal immunity. As Walt said, you have to pay for herd immunity with some of the herd, and there may be better options.


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