Posted by Coach on May 07, 2020 at 08:21:09:
In Reply to: Stop reading Nat Review and watching OAN posted by Ledger Report sucks on May 06, 2020 at 12:17:16:
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: : : : : : "I don't understand your comment about an additive effect, and I don't think you understand it either."
: : : : : Walt's Dog is likely referring to underlying cause of death (UCOD). Coronavirus may not kill people directly, but it can cause something that will.
: : : : : For example, HIV has never directly killed anyone. But the virus it causes leads to the collapse of the immune system, at which point any illness can kill a person.
: : : : : Coronavirus makes people susceptible to ARDS, pneumonia, and can cause organ failure indirectly if the body has a hypo-inflammatory response to the replicating virus. Granted, older people are far more prone to these, but even those over the age of 45 (40% of the USA) are significantly more vulnerable. Keeping them sequestered until the virus passes, while everyone under 45 is out spreading it, isn't really an option. Finally, who makes the call on who stays home and gets to go out? How many underlying conditions is too many? For the essential workers who happened to be over 45, having countless healthy asymptomatic spreaders around would make every day a minefield.
: : : : : This isn't even considering the damage it has done to the lungs of survivors of all ages, the ramifications of which will likely be unknown for years to come.
: : : : : : "As for those deaths occurring anyway, I know just as much as you do. In other words, we are both speculating. But if you read the instructions the CDC provided to health care workers in filling out death certificates*, you will note that the CDC itself says "Natural deaths are due solely or almost entirely to disease or the aging process (8). In the case of death due to a COVIDľ19 infection, the manner of death will almost always be natural." In other words, the coronavirus may bring death earlier than expected for the old, sick, and weak, but it's not (generally, to the best of our knowledge) striking down young healthy people like a bolt of lightning."
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: : : : : Saying the Coronavirus only kills people who would have died anyway is like saying Magic Johnson only made passes for shots the other Lakers could have made on their own.
: : : : : On a death certificate, "natural causes" actually refers to the "manner of death" rather than the specific cause.
: : : : : Coronavirus causes death by natural causes, but the fact it has killed people with no pre-existing conditions makes it the likely driving force behind deaths of people with comorbidities. In other words, those people would not have died this soon, and not all at once.
: : : : I don't agree with your analogy. I agree that coronavirus gets the assist in the event of coronavirus-related deaths. But many weak and older people die of pneumonia, although if you ask a doctor they will tell you it was just that person's time to go. As the body reaches a certain point it is unable to fight off many diseases that younger healthier bodies have no trouble with. To those high risk people, a common cold becomes potentially deadly since that can often turn into pneumonia.
: : : The common cold or flu has never wiped out half a nursing home in weeks. A nursing home isn't the same as a hospice, not everyone in a nursing home is on a "DNR" order.
: : : Come to think of it, maybe Michael Cooper and Byron Scott could have run point for Showtime...Magic always stealing credit
: : The flu has wiped out far more people than coronavirus ever will. I don't think you know what you're talking about.
: Coronavirus has already killed more Americans than an average bad flu season, despite only taking hold in February, and despite the lockdown. The lockdown completely ended flu deaths after March, just to give you an idea of how trivial the flu is comparatively. Not even one tenth as many people have coronavirus as the flu, and Covid-19 has still killed more this year.
: Oh, and deaths from the flu are also attributed to natural causes, if you were wondering.
A few points about the "numbers".
1. Doctors have been trained to only list as cause of death that which they are 100% certain the cause of death. They are now being told that if a patient has tested positive and COVID-19 may have contributed to their death, to list it as the cause. If a patient has not been tested but it is reasonable that they may have died from COVID-19, then list it as the cause of death. Do a search, there are literally dozens of doctors nationwide complaining about this.
2. Hospitals are getting government funding for every COVID-19 case they treat, including extra money for every death. County coroners have denied death certificates from hospitals erroneously listing the cause of death as COVID-19 and making the hospital correct and refile. These deaths have already been counted as COVID-19 deaths in the official tally and they are not removed from it.
3. Three separate studies (probably more now) have concluded that for every official positive test there are 50-80 that have or have had COVID-19. That means that the infected number is 60 to 100 million. The studies were done by the Santa Clara County Health Department with Stanford University, Los Angeles County Health Department, and the CDC Atlanta.
4. On April 25th, a lot of people disregarded social distancing and stay at home to go to the beach. Our governor was quite displeased. Notice that a few days later for several days we were getting test results back the number of which was double that of anything done before. This was an attempt to make it look like the virus had exploded so the governor could say "I told you so." Just one problem: Despite more than double the tests, the positive results stayed the same or went down.
The most important point about this disease is it isn't going to go away after time. There is no "staying in quarantine until it passes". There are two ways to "beat" it. Herd Immunity and/or a Vaccine. I think it's pretty obvious we can't stay in lockdown until there's a vaccine and as long as we're in lockdown we won't get anything close to herd immunity.
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