This is a "novel" virus


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Posted by no panic just facts on May 01, 2020 at 01:19:21:

In Reply to: Re: The real problem for restarting sports in high schools posted by Quarantine the sick on April 30, 2020 at 15:45:00:

: : But let me ask you about your last statement--do YOU think that American lives should mean more than the economy?**

: : : Walt's Dog

: : I'm your huckleberry.

: : Walt, do you think we should shut down the entire world economy for months if it were to save just one human life? And if not, how many lives exactly do we need to save to justify the cost of shutting everything down? I don't want to sound cold, but this is the crux of the problem. Exactly how many lives do we need to be saving in order to shut down the world?

:
: Common sense
: Quarantine the sick
: Don't Quarantine the healthy
: When this is all said and done, it will come out that those exposed to the virus will be a number closer to 80-85% making mortality rates infinitesimal.
: Our immune systems are currently not being able to do what they are made to do and may cause more damage down the road than what we are "experiencing" right now.

Simply being exposed to the Coronavirus and having a few thousand antibodies won't save a person from contracting the disease again, resistance doesn't equal immunity. If more of the virus were circulating, even those who had a mild form of it can catch Covid-19 again and be at risk. Letting people get infected when our hospitals are calling up med school students to the front lines isn't the answer.

Your idea of only quarantining the sick is logical - if everyone could be tested, and once a week at that. But the United States has only tested ~1% of the population, so it is impossible to know who doesn't have the virus. Asymptomatic transmission exists, and medical science has shown people are most contagious right before symptoms hit.

Boris Johnson initially wanted to try for "herd immunity", and now the U.K. has a per capita death rate far higher than the United States. To blame the media for the shutdown is pointless when governments around the world have closed borders and enacted restrictions on movement and gatherings. Brazil's president opposes this, but over 90% of his nation's governors have shut down their provinces, much to his chagrin.

Thankfully, the shutdown has enabled us to have a (mostly) normal life starting in about 2 weeks. Currently, every new infection is estimated to cause .8 new infections, once that drops to .5, it should stay away until late fall.

We are as vulnerable to this as our ancestors from 100 years back were for Spanish Flu, perhaps more. The advancements in medical science are no match for the increase in population density and globalized nature of the world compared to a century ago. There are 4 times as many people in the world than in 1919, and air travel aids the spread of disease. Presently, 5 out of 6 Americans live in an urban setting, compared to 3 of 6 in 1920. And don't get me started on homeless populations compared to 1920.

And to whoever brought up 40,000 people at Newport Beach and compared that to a crowd at Dodger Stadium...drown in a jetty. The beach is over five miles long. East Coast resort towns have up to twice that many on a hot day, reporters had to use camera tricks to make the families appear closer than they actually were. Very few people were in the water.


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