Re: No chance at season if this is true

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Posted by Dr. Fauci on April 26, 2020 at 03:08:44:

In Reply to: Re: No chance at season if this is true posted by basketball_jones on April 26, 2020 at 01:13:56:

: You do realize that the shelter in place has really decreased the chances of a more massive explosion of Corona, don't you? Imagine if there was NO shelter in place? it would be a much worse situation...

I hope everyone also realizes that the "confirmed" cases mentioned in POS's post are only those who have either been tested and confirmed, hospitalized and confirmed, or who have died and autopsies have confirmed they had the disease, right? 45,000 "confirmed" cases.

The population of California is over 45 million, and less than 1% of the population has been tested. Those who have been infected and had mild symptoms, remained unhospitalized but who were (and may still be) contagious and spreading the disease, is likely to be magnitudes greater than just the number of "confirmed" cases.

California has been incredibly lucky that almost everyone has followed Safer at Home sheltering and quarantining. There is a reason public health officials in California continue to urge the politicians and bureaucrats not to loosen the restrictions prematurely.

The problem is not what we know has occurred so far; it's what we don't know because there isn't sufficiently available (or sufficiently quick and reliable) testing. if there was, it would be easy to require those with the disease to quarantine and to allow those not infected to enjoy greater social rights and privileges. But without testing, without effective treatments, and without even proper palliative methods (believe me, shoving a ventilator down the throat of a patient put into a comatose state isn't a "cure" at all), we're all at risk. And when we speak of the risk, this isn't the common cold, and it's not the flu. This is enormously worse than anything we've seen, with the possible exception of other novel viruses like Ebola, smallpox, hantavirus, or untreatable necrotizing fasciatis.

Playing basketball is great, but not if it endangers the lives of everyone involved.

Maybe there will be a basketball season, maybe not. No one has a crystal ball to be able to predict with certainty. Whatever happens though, it's going to be a lot different than anything we've experienced in years past, you can bet on that.

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