Re: The Virus

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Posted by POS on April 13, 2020 at 15:50:10:

In Reply to: The Virus posted by Mr. Hankey on April 12, 2020 at 17:39:35:

: : : : : : : : Surprised no one talking about this, and I am surprised people are still posting Summer tournaments.

: : : : : : : : Fall sports I believe have little chance of happening, it's just too soon and if/when schools reopen the focus will be on everything besides sports. Winter is flu season and most likely time for a second wave of the virus to hit. Can't imagine schools bussing teams of players to other schools 2-3 times a week. Spring could have a small chance if all goes right (early vaccine, etc) but at that point might as well skip all sports for the year. Most districs will be happy to save the money.

: : : : : : : : Thoughts?

: : : : : : : I have the same line of thought as you. IF IF IF there is even an ATTEMPT at in person school in Aug/Sept, there surely will not be ANY extra curricular activities, no clubs, choir, drama, sports, anything that keeps the school in charge longer than just the normal academic school day.

: : : : : : I would be surprised if things aren't mostly back to normal by then. If you look at the numbers and understand how infection rate and all that works, you'd calculate that everyone will be infected and recovered by then. The disease is considered to be an R0=2 or 3 which means the infected number doubles or triples daily. But thanks to social distancing and the quarantine we've slowed that by about 1/5. Which means the number of infected is doubling or tripling every 5 days or so. At that rate, the disease will have run its course by the end of May.

: : : : : : It is just simple math. Currently it is estimated (very conservatively) that between 1 to 3 million Americans are or have been infected. Using the low of 1 million, double that number every 6 days for 48 days and on May 28th you have
: : : : : : Today: 1 million
: : : : : : 6 days - 2 million
: : : : : : 12 days - 4 million
: : : : : : 18 days - 8 million
: : : : : : 24 days - 16 million
: : : : : : 30 days - 32 million
: : : : : : 36 days - 64 million
: : : : : : 42 days - 128 million
: : : : : : 48 days - 256 million

: : : : : Just loons. We will easily be back by August, if not sooner. No way are these stats even close to what is going to happen. Again. Loons

: : : : You all are a bunch of idiots and need to do something else with your time and energy. Read a book or something. I would say watch porn but we all know that's what you have been doing for the past few weeks. I get that you are bored and miss watching little kids running around like a bunch of pedophiles that you are. Its okay. Things will get back to normal. The schools and CIF will get back to sports when the time is right. If the numbers remain low then the kids will be allowed to practice and if things by the time schools starts are down then schools will be back in session. There is so much money involved and the school districts and CIF thrive on money so they will have sports in the fall and all year. This was an overreaction by everyone involved to shut everything down.

: : : : The person saying that in 48 days there will be 256 million people infected is the exact reason why we are all on lockdown. Idiots that failed math classes or do common core math are telling everyone that 56% of the population of California would be infected with Coronavirus and the numbers aren't even close. Even if we would have carried on with our daily lives and took all of the necessary precautions we do now, the social distancing and actually washing our hands the numbers wouldn't even get close to 56% of the population of California being sick, why because that's an impossible number. 20,000,000 people getting sick when there are currently 18,309 confirmed cases with probably more that are unconfirmed but still its only .0462816% of the population of California that is currently infected with Coronavirus. Even if that number were to double in the next month that still wouldn't even get to .01% of the population of California being affected. Even if this virus comes back in the winter we as a country and state will be better prepared for it. Let's think logically and get back to our lives and back to the things we love to do like the gym, going to the movies, watching our favorite sports teams and for all of the parents living through their kid's lives back to high school sports.

: : :
: : : Here's the issue with things that increase exponentially:
: : : Assuming you have one month's worth of savings, would you prefer a penny salary that can be deferred to the next day, and in the process double each day it is not received through 31 days, or 100k per day throughout the month?

: : : The only reason half the state and country don't have it yet is the shutdown AND social distancing. Even with under .5% of this country infected, 20k have died. You want to see what over 50% would look like, with all cases taking place within the same month? Not to mention how swamped the hospitals would be, heart attack patients would die at home, with hospitals packed with Covid patients on every floor.

: : : Also, would the poor and even middle class who have been laid off and lost their HMOs have any chance at healthcare in such an event? Could that not cause serious social unrest? This shutdown is no fear mongering hoax, every infected country has some similar measures in place. USA is less restrictive and invasive than some. So far.

: : : Of course the country would have to be re-opened to some extent by June at the latest. I agree that if schools are back in session, sports will be back as well.

: : I don't care what its called all you are doing is spreading a bunch of B/S and spreading it thick!!First of all 256 million is a big number to throw out there and we aren't even close to reaching that number and we wouldn't even if we continued our daily lives. People like you, the media and any other so-called expert need to just be quiet. The numbers don't lie. The city I live in which is about 78,000 people currently has 50 Coronavirus cases. Up 18 cases from last Sunday. OH MY GOD!! Sound the panic alarm. It didn't double in a week like your little chart explains. As of right now, our country has 557,235 total cases with 24,356 new cases today so far and 21,956 deaths. 1,379 new deaths so far today. I don't see 2 million cases after 6 days. Way off base and frankly you need to just be quiet. So far 0.16856344% of the US population has been infected with Coronavirus. 0.00664168% of the US population has died from the Coronavirus. I am sure you are the kind of person that feels that one death is too many but there really isn't most of the medical field or politicians could have done to prevent or save everyone from this virus. We can shelter indoor and do all of these things we are doing and we can stop this virus. But people posting doomsday numbers need to just keep their opinions and thoughts to themselves.

: 1. It is important to envision a doomsday scenario to remind everyone what we could be facing without a lockdown. I didn't post that 256 million number, but if Americans just went about their lives and ignored the virus, at least 256 million people would get it by June.

: 80% of them would show little to no symptoms, but over 10 million would show severe symptoms. Normally most of that 10 million would survive, but the healthcare system would collapse under so many simultaneous cases. Hospitals would resemble pop-up stores selling original Air Jordans.

: First all the med schools would have to send up doctors who haven't graduated, weeks later anyone who watched House or The Resident would be asked to put on a robe and gloves. Panic and civil unrest would lead to actual Martial Law being instated in major cities, with the smaller towns possibly under control of militias like the Oath Keepers. Or worse. Healthy Police officers and other essential services would abandon their posts to keep their families safe, as continuing to work puts the people they love in jeopardy. Hospitals would be tossing the dead into nearby ditches daily. At least gas prices would be cheap, as they would need lots of accelerant to burn that much flesh.

: 2. More people have it, or have already gotten over the virus, than USA tests have shown. Even though we have tested over 2 million, there is a backlog and many tests have yet to be reviewed and counted.

: Only South Korea tested healthy people who had no exposure to the virus, and it showed that 80% of the infected had no symptoms or very mild symptoms. Those people wouldn't have been tested, per American policy. It's great your city has so few cases, but chances are the asymptomatic people (could be up to 200) would infect many people rapidly if your city reopened in a week.

: The end of your message shows you understand the value of sheltering in place, it worked for your community. Just be glad your governor fell for the "liberal media hoax".

: tl;dr if we re-open too early, the virus rebounds, as it is an R0=2 virus at least, with potential for logarithmic expansion. 256 million sounds crazy, but remember that's theoretical, and assumes people wouldn't adjust their behavior accordingly even as the virus was wiping out tens of thousands. We would have locked ourselves down by now even if every government was determined not to close anything.

Site your information and how you come up with your numbers. Show me how you got 80% of the would show little to no symptoms and 10 million people would show severe symptoms. You can't because it all in your head. You are speculating like you know that it's true. Your numbers and information have no base nor are they to be true. Just some random number that you came up with. You go around telling your friends, family and co-workers your little end of the world scenario and numbers just to make yourself look as if you are smarter than everyone else. Well all it does is show how full of B/S you really are. If you have on proof or information to back up your claims then don't share it because there will be someone like myself that will and would have proved you wrong.

You are probably one of those people that enjoy this kind of stuff. You love doomsday scenarios like whenever the "big one" finally hits California you can go to all of your friends and say, "I told you so!!" "Look I was right for a change!!" Aren't you. You know nothing and you speak nonsense. I was out driving around yesterday since I can still do that and I counted maybe 200 people out and about in my area. 200 people walking around and getting some fresh air and exercise. Out of the 200 I saw maybe about 40% of them outside without a mask on. Nothing covering their faces at all. If we believe your information and numbers then all of those people would be infected with Coronavirus because they didn't wear a mask covering their faces. I am willing to bet that not a single one of them will get the virus let alone a sniffle because all of the numbers and nonsense being spread by the media and people like you are false.

I looked today and my city had zero new cases. The cities around me since I have 3 other cities within a mile or two of where I live all have seen the number of cases decrease. Hopefully the decrease is due to people getting healthy and not dying. But as you can see, no there is no doubling going on.

Los Angeles County on April 11th there were 456 new cases of the virus. On April 12th, 323 new cases and so far today, 239 new cases. I believe we are supposed to hit our peak on Thursday if I heard the news right. So even though new cases are coming by the hundreds there is no doubling of any kind the number of new cases are decreasing. So your doomsday scenario isn't happening. You can continue to sit in your parent's basement, pardon me, your lair or is it your command center? Anyways, you can sit there and come out with a new end of the world scenario but until then just keep it to yourself.

Even if we were to re-open our communities tomorrow most of the smart people would still work at home and continue to practice social distancing. Kids are home so that means that parents would have to watch their kids so that means at least one parent stays home and can work from home too. So no matter what happens we as a society will adjust or behavior accordingly. That's how we evolved as a society and a species to the point we are at now. This virus will not defeat us nor will it have a lasting effect. It will be a footnote in our history.

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