Re: Will State take place?


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Posted by ... on March 12, 2020 at 08:56:53:

In Reply to: Re: Will State take place? posted by POS on March 11, 2020 at 20:08:14:

: : : : : : : : : UCLA will not have any spectators for home games and that would include any rounds that the Bruins might host. Will the powers that be simply cancel state? I never thought it would be a possibility but it's looking more and more real. What say you?

: : : : : : : : 25 years from now we're all going to look back on this and laugh. Like Y2K. Or Billy Idol.

: : : : : : : Ironically, you'll be correct if the cancellations of large events and self-quarantines are effective. Conversely look at the paraded in Philadelphia in 1918. Nobody every looked back on that and laughed.

: : : : : : : I don't mind if people err on the side of caution.

: : : : : : : Walt's Dog

: : : : : : USC and Stanford have joined the group so it's likely that if State goes on, it will be in front of empty stands. Right now, I think it will be cancelled.

: : : : : :It's not on the side of caution. It's on the side of paranoia.

: : : : This is the sort of thinking that happens when a country devalues science education.

: : : :Or maybe it's just a country devaluing logic and rationale thought

: : Either way, it's not a good thing.

: : https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/11/coronavirus-live-updates/

: Mass hysteria is upon us. For everyone freaking out calm your tits. For everyone buying toilet paper, cases of water, disinfecting wipes and hand sanitizer you all need help. Since when a virus that is like the flu require roll after roll of toilet paper? I can understand disinfecting everything but to make those products work they literally have to keep things wet or disinfected for a few minutes to kill the germs. But keep on freaking out. Keep on spreading the flames of stupidity.

: The NBA has suspended their season shows how stupid they are too. Just threw away millions of dollars over a flu bug. Way to go NBA. Way to overact. I hope that their cancelling the season results in death blow to the NBA. If I am a sponsor or financial contributor I would sue the NBA for breach of contract and for the lost revenue this will cost. You don't pull the plug on a multi-billion dollar industry and not expect repercussions. ESPN/ABC should sue, the food vendors should sue, the cities and venues should sue the NBA for everything they can because of a knee jerk reaction.

: As for CIF cancelling the state championships or the teams playing in front of empty stands. It won't make a difference to some of these games. I mean how many people are actually going to watch Division 5 State Championship game? 500 people? 1,000? Oh wow, 1,000 people in an arena that holds 18,000 talk about a waste. CIF should move the games with the exception of the Open Division and Division 1 to local schools. Split the games and have the highest remaining seed host the game therefore the stands will be full of people that want to be there instead of wasting money on an arena that is only moderately full for the games that actually matter.

: Anything below Division 1 just have it in a high school gym and be done with trying to fill an NBA arena. Just do like they do with football and let the high schools host it and save a bunch of money. We don't need a virus to make changes just do it out of necessity and quit wasting money on venues that are already not being used to capacity.

: I would understand if the arenas where packed but we haven't had full arenas in quite some time every since competitive equality took over and we started sending trash to play for state championship. We have gone from having our regional finals at good size arenas like the Galen Center or Pauley Pavilion to now having games in a high school gym. I hope CIF cancels the state championship finals too therefore we all can look back at this season as a joke and farce. Just give everyone in the finals a box of surgical masks and a bottle of hand sanitizer as their trophy for them to display in their trophy cases.

**Disclaimer Ė learning may occur here***

Okay so this post will have some history and some genetics in it, and I hope it turns out to be educational for people who never took a basic genetics course or an AP bio level course in high school.

I am also going to front load some vocabulary here before diving in.

Virus: an infective agent that typically consists of a nucleic acid molecule (DNA) in a protein coat, is too small to be seen by light microscopy, and is able to multiply only within the living cells of a host.

Virulence: the severity or harmfulness of a disease

Mitosis: a type of cell division that results in two daughter cells each having the same number and kind of chromosomes as the parent nucleus via DNA copying, typical of ordinary tissue growth.


Mutation: the changing of the structure of a gene, resulting in a variant form that may be transmitted to subsequent generations, caused by the alteration of single base units in DNA, or the deletion, insertion, or rearrangement of larger sections of genes or chromosomes.

Gene: (in informal use) a unit of heredity which is transferred from a parent to offspring and is held to determine some characteristic of the offspring.


So first letís start with DNA, it is the code that makes each of us, well us. Basically the information about all your traits and how you should work are contained here. During Mitosis (I wonít get into the mechanics of it) the DNA of a cell is copied and new cells are created. However, during this copying process, even with correction available, sometimes the new copies of DNA has an error (think typo). Now, much of the time that error can happen in the GATTACA DNA (of what is sometimes referred to as junk DNA hence the name of the movie, side note we are learning more and maybe it isnít so junk after all). So many of these copy errors have very little effect. However, with millions of cells being made continuously over a life span some of those errors actually happen in a gene, which will change that genes function, which is what a mutation is. Over the course of time, you collect genetic errors (technically you are genetically different now than when you were born) and your cells functions can start to degrade, we call this old age (donít even bring up telomeres, we are trying to keep this basic). But, it is also the reason why cancers are more prevalent as people age, those genetic errors can happen in a crucial gene, and that of course is bad. Thus the more divisions the more chance a mutation can happen in a crucial spot. I had to look this up but a person has 10 quadrillion cell divisions in a lifetime, thatís a lot of possible opportunity for error accumulation.

So why is this relevant? Well we established above that genes can change due to error propagation from the DNA having copy issues. So now letís look at a virus, if you read the definition above you understand that basically a virus attacks a cell, hijacks it, and then makes copies of itself (and damages the cells in the process). We also established above that this typing system is error prone (the error rate is very small, but enough to make changes in a quadrillion copies). So an infected individual is really a virus factor, coping it millions of times. Letís pause that for a minute and talk about virulence. In a nutshell, we could simplify and say virulence is how well it will kill itís host, thus it greatly influences mortality rates (yes, I know is a simplification, but we want to not get too bogged down) Now Some virusí are more virulent than others, like SARS or Ebola, they have high virulence. Unpause, what we should understand is that virulence is a property of a virus and it is in the DNA. Thus, as each virus is copied it has the chance of accumulating a mutation, with millions of copies made those mutations can affect the genes that determine virulence, which could make it more or less virulent to the next host.

So now letís take some of this and put it together, because I think many people miss the point about the cancelling of events, quarantine etc because they lack an important insight. An insight I hope I can put together from the above information.

Corona virus, everyone is saying all sorts of things, marching out mortality rates, and current virulence etc. But what they fail to see is the underlying genetics of it all. When there are more hosts available, you have many more copies being made, and many more mutations being added to the virus. Due to sheer numbers of infected a mass outbreaks can actually increase virulence of a virus (we have evidence of this truth explained below). Even the most virulent strains can survive if there is a large availability of hosts thus it can keep it going in big outbreaks. However if you cut off available hosts the most virulent strains will die out, and only the less virulent strains are around long enough to infect another host. (by the way China is reporting that a less virulent strain has emerged, and I am willing to bet the reduction of available hosts due to quarantines and other measures had an important impact on that. ) This is part of the reason why we donít want corona virus to spread massively, not because the virulence is high and we are going to have massive deaths because of it, but because a massive proliferation could see mutations that jump the virulence greatly. If that were to happen the cost on life and economy would be devastating.

*Disclaimer here: I AM NOT COMPARING CONORA VIRUS TO THE SPANISH FLU. But I am using it as a real life example of mutations effecting virulence. So here is the evidence as engrained in History. The 1918 Spanish flu actually happened in three waves (called a W curve). Did you know that? Many think it was a singular event, but it wasnít. But to give you an idea, it infected something like 500 million people and estimated it killed between 20 to 50 million (which is more than all the soldiers and civilians killed in WWI combined.) It first appeared in March 1918 it was virulent, but nothing too crazy, mortality rate was slightly higher than flu season. The problem was WWI provided a massive movement of people around the world, thus that flu travelled everywhere (lots of hosts availability, we are more mobile now as a world than in during WWI). By the summer, cases of the flu had dropped off with expectations that by August it would be over. However, because of the massive spread and sheer volume of hosts who contracted it (remember trillions of viral copies), mutations had accumulated and by mid August of 1918 a highly virulent strain emerged that would kill a healthy man or woman within 24 hours of showing infection. This strain was then moved around the world via the war effort. Death rates blew up, in October of 1918 195,000 Americans died in that month alone. This spread was also exacerbated because governments refused to enforce quarantines during wartime (check British history on that). Then, after millions of deaths everyone thought it was over, it had run its course. But again due to a wide spread a second highly virulent strain erupted in 1919 in Australia and worked its way back to Europe and the United States, global deaths of the third wave were in the millions but werenít near as bad as the second way because the war was over and the movement of people around the world slowed dramatically.

So this is real reason why social distancing and cancelling events is important, this isnít about what the virus is right now, but about what it could be if it were to spread unchecked and be given the environment where mutation could increase its virulence. And no this isnít time to panic, but this is time to take action, and by action I donít mean stockpiling toilet paper.

The socioeconomic damage of containment will be great, there is no doubt about that, but would pale in comparison to massive epidemic of a highly virulent strain.



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