Posted by thanks coach on February 15, 2017 at 13:19:56:
In Reply to: Re: 3A First Round Predictions posted by Coach Neil on February 15, 2017 at 12:32:03:
: : : Any coaches in 3A want to predict the first round games? Any other fans / parents want to take a crack?
: : There could be a few close games since CIF definitely didn't rank 17-30 correctly.
: : Simi Valley at Los Osos. Simi was ranked all year, but yet is heading to #1 Los Osos for round 1... Los Osos should win but it will be interesting to see if Simi can push them (this should have been a 2nd round match-up). LO 63 - Simi 48
: : Hemet headed to Shadow Hills --- Shadow Hills at home with a slight advantage.. this one should be close as the 16-17 match-up.. Either team most likely loses in round of 16 to Osos, but I'll go with Shadow Hills by 3.
: : Hillcrest at Irvine -- Irvine all over them... Irvine is highly undervalued but got a tough draw moving forward...Irvine by 30
: : Bellflower at Crossroads -- Crossroads should win this one, played a tougher schedule.. Crossroads and Irvine should be a good round of 16 battle.. Crossroads 56-41
: : Rancho Verde at Sierra Vista -- Rancho big.. Sierra won't be able to handle the pressure. Rancho Verde 68-38
: : Louisville over Katella -- Louisville much tougher league and they picked up a big from volleyball... don't think Katella can match up. Louisville 49-32
: : St. Mary's Academy at Villa Park-- think this will be a close one -- both teams played pretty good schedules... interested to see who wins this one. I'll go with Villa Park. VP 51-47.
: : Viewpoint at Montebello -- computer ranks both teams highly so we will find out which one is for real... I think Viewpoint pulls it out on the road. Viewpoint 46-41.
: : Temple City at Lancaster -- Lancaster beat them earlier in the year so surprised they are playing in the 1st round... Lancaster should win but TC could make a run at them as they have been playing better. Lancaster 51-40.
: : Beaumont at La Sierra -- interesting match-up -- I think Beaumont has more horses but something tells me La Sierra might pull an upset. La Sierra 48-47.
: : Paraclete at Moorpark -- Moorpark shoots threes and Paraclete plays zone -- see which one works.. Moorpark most likely headed for quarters vs Lancaster. Moorpark 52-37.
: : Chaffey at La Salle -- La Salle probably has the best PG in the division. Honestly don't know much about Chaffey but La Salle 50-31.
: : Price at Oxnard -- Price squeezed into the playoffs and I think Oxnard bounces them out 58-34.
: : Perris at Granite Hills -- Granite Hills has one of the best players in the division. I think at home and having played good teams, GH gets it done and heads to #2 Flintridge Prep Saturday. GH 52-45...
: Good analysis. Thanks for posting.
: As for seeds 17-30 being incorrect, CIF doesn't try to seed them correctly. It generally goes off of a system based on what you got in league.
: Viewpoint, Rancho Verde, Beaumont, and St Marys were all seeded teams that were at large teams or 3rd Place and need road games. So they get paired up with teams that are unseeded, but got 1st/2nd Place in league and needed a home game.
: They also award the byes to the ranked 1st place teams. This is why you see Los Osos playing 1st Round, but not Savanna and FP.
: The way they do it makes sense and is fair in terms of earning home games and earning byes. An award for winning your league. However, it makes for some very interesting match ups round 1. Viewpoint has probably the hardest match up round one of all divisions #5 seeds. Los Osos got a match up round one that MaxPreps seems to think will be more competitive than their round two match up. (According to their ranking of 3A.)
: The rest of the games I don't know how they do it. I would assume they have the #1's/#2's in league play at larges first, but besides that, not sure why Los Osos got Simi Valley as opposed to Price for example.
Thanks for the input, I believe they look at the league champions initially -- so FP, Shadow Hills and Savanna... Shadow Hills didn't get the bye because the other 2 were undefeated in league and they lost 1. They were all ranked so they would be placed in their ranking spots.
From what I understand, which isn't much, they then place the top 4 seeds in the coaches poll and progress with the next 4, etc.
Only 2 changes happened from the last 3A poll -- Irvine and Oxnard flip-flopped 9 and 10 and Savanna jumped to 14 in the bracket due to the bye scenario and 2nd round home game situation.
From what I've been told, they then look at proximity.. so if 2 teams are fairly equal, let's say 24th and 25th, they would send them to a closer location if possible. I am surprised that Simi didn't go to Irvine or La Salle. Simi played a number of teams in 3A during the season so I know they try not to have rematches in the first round, although they did with TC and Lancaster... surprised Paraclete isn't at Lancaster actually - same city, bigger draw.
In the end, you play who you play and it all works out on the court. Good Luck to all.
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