Posted by Maybe... on January 27, 2017 at 07:20:31:
In Reply to: Re: Open Division Selection posted by in the Open on January 26, 2017 at 09:44:05:
: : : : : : : So when should we see some teams being eliminated from the open list or is it that open for all teams after the guaranteed 6-10??
: : : : : : ...since there are only like 3 weeks left in the season.
: : : : : : My guess is there are 10 locks right now. And another 10 in serious consideration for the last 6 spots.
: : : : :
: : : : : : The question is - are you asking because you want to make Open? Or because you want no part of it? LOL
: : : : : LOL. That is everyone's dilemma.. to go or not to go, that is the question..
: : : : : No, it's more of an inquiry if the committee is actually looking at the teams or just passing it off until the final week and/or day. I know a few teams would want to know on how to prepare themselves in 2.5 weeks for when brackets come out.
: : : : ...hope for the best. LOL
: : : : Obviously some of the teams left on the list have no shot.
: : : : But if you are a bubble team, you should plan like you are in.
: : : : But I don't see how you really are going to "prepare". It's no different than regular playoffs just the teams are better.
: : : : You find out who you play, watch some film, make adjustments as best you can.
: : : : By mid-Feb you are who you are.
: : First, I highly doubt the AV coach wants to be in Open. Low seed = blowout loss.
: : Second, they aren't going to be in anyway. Schedule is too weak to get serious consideration.
: : Just enjoy a good shot at another CIF title. Let the kids enjoy the ride.
: I won't speak on if AV wants the Open or not, but the 16 teams chosen for the Open are all granted a state berth, so I am sure everyone would be happy about being selected --- even 2 losses in a row puts you in the D2 state bracket. Not a bad season at all ----
: As it is, I think AV will be a top 4 seed in 1A (currently ranked #7) when the dust settles and enter the playoffs at 24-1 or 25-1....I know they are significantly better than many ranked teams in 1A... I don't know much about FP and King, but I can definitely tell you that AV can compete with everyone else in 1A...
: yes, their schedule is weaker than most Open and 1A teams but that doesn't mean they can't compete with them. I put AV in about the same spot as last year - 15-25 range in SoCal and able to compete with anyone (didn't say defeat, said compete).....
I think you are right about their seeding in 1A. Probably have a good shot to make another run at a banner there.
As for being able to "compete with anyone", I would say maybe.
I like Smith, and they have some nice pieces.
But honestly I can't tell if they can compete with Windwards, Alemanys, Harvard Westlakes of the world since they never play them.
And when you do play teams like that, the game gets faster, tighter, less margin for error, etc.
The last elite team I remember them playing was Chaminade last year and they got smoked. Now, I know Chaminade smoked almost everyone last year, so there is no shame in that. But AV was down 24-0 and looked like a deer in the headlights.
So again, maybe they can. But I can't say that until they actually show that in a game, which will (yet again) have to wait until next year.
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