Re: Basketball Division Question


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Posted by it is complicated on January 26, 2017 at 08:57:44:

In Reply to: Re: Basketball Division Question posted by Question on January 26, 2017 at 08:34:46:

: : : : I saw the formula but I'm confused on how it's weighted. Next year what will make you move up or down divisions? What has to be the win % and how far will you have to advance in the playoffs to move up. And what will it take to move down?? What if your 24-3 but lose in the 2nd round?? Were will you go

: : : It is a 2 year ranking. Each team is given points for every game. Points are weighted based on your level of opponent. The teams in 1AA and 1A have the highest power rating and therefore your team gets maximum points for a win and a loss. Teams who play Division 1 and 2 teams will get more points even if they lose than teams playing Division 5 and 6 teams. You also get bonus points for each round of playoffs. This year they put equal weight to each of the last 2 years (50-50). Every year they will redo the divisions based on the preceding 2 years. So, your team will be rated on those season and 15-16. Obviously 15-16 is already done. 16-17 rankings will begin as soon as CIF champions are crowned. CIF may have already started ratings for all I know but not sure. It is easy to do under their current system, but tweaks may need to be made. There are still some teams in divisions they clearly should not be on, but since it is based on the teams previous 2 years, some teams suffer success placement despite heavy graduation loss and some teams greatly benefit from being bad for 3 years and now having a better team.

: : The last two years were weighted 33% - 67% according to the CIF website.

: To clarify. If a team were to play lower level teams and win a lot they could potentially move down in divisions? Where as a team who plays a tougher schedule versus D1 and D2 schools but lose a lot of those games could be moved up? Then obviously playoff success comes in to play. Thanks for any clarity.

The above poster was indeed correct (33% - 67%)

Formula for points against a 1AA or 1A school:
Level 1 (75% win percentage or Higher):
Win = 50 points Loss = 20 points
Level 2 (74% - 50% win percentage):
Win = 38 points Loss = 15 points
Level 3 (49% - 25% win percentage):
Win = 26 points Loss = 10 points
Level 4 (24% win percentage or Lower):
Win = 14 points Loss = 5 points

Formula for points against a 4AA or 4A school:
Level 1 (75% win percentage or Higher):
Win = 20 points Loss = 8 points
Level 2 (74% - 50% win percentage):
Win = 15 points Loss = 6 points
Level 3 (49% - 25% win percentage):
Win = 10 points Loss = 4 points
Level 4 (24% win percentage or Lower):
Win = 5 points Loss = 2 points

These can be found on the cifss.org website. As you can see there is a great disparity depending on who you play. The most possible points you can get from defeating a D4 school is 20 (and that's if the team is winning at a 75% or better clip). You get 50 for beating a D1 school with the same record and in fact get 20 just for losing to them. Teams who are in leagues with D1 schools get far more points.

With this formula, coaches now need to consider who they are playing out of league. No coach can control what league they are in. For example, AV (in 1A this year) is in a league where the 2nd highest rated team is 3A and all other schools are D4 or D5. This constitutes 14 of AV's 20 allowable contests and greatly reduces their points. And, it hurts the 7 teams because they get the maximum total of 40 for losing to AV twice.

A school like Los Osos (3A this year) plays in a league where two of the teams are Division 1, two of the teams are Division 2 and 2 are Division 3, so their power points are going up considerably this year since they are having a great year and defeating D1 and D2 schools. They will most likely do what AV did last year and jump from 3A to 1A.

Those are 2 examples off the top of my head. Obviously there are 570 others :)

Most teams play a mix of schools from several divisions, especially since this formula is brand new this year. However, rest assured that the manipulation of the system will begin next year as more and more become familiar with the formula.



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