Posted by Maxpreps on February 07, 2018 at 08:32:17:
In Reply to: Re: Open Division posted by fan on February 07, 2018 at 07:30:57:
: : As we approach the last few days of the regular season, here is a shot at what City Open will look like on Saturday.
: : Have tried to reason this out, but City always seems to do something crazy every year.
: : So here we go...
: : 1. Granada Hills - I like Fairfax here, but currently City has GH #1. Obviously this would change if Granada loses to ECR Friday.
: : 2. Fairfax - Again, I would put them 1, but this is very likely where they end up. They will be 1 if ECR beats Granada on Friday.
: : 3. El Camino - I think this is where they end up win or lose on Friday. If they lose, they should be ahead of Narbonne given they have a much tougher schedule. If they win, if I understand the tiebreakers, GH will go in as top team from West Valley due to them beating Lynwood while ECR lost to them.
: : 4. Narbonne - League champion, but weak schedule. But they will get a home game. I think there is a big drop off after the top 3.
: : 5. Eagle Rock - I would put Birmingham here, but because ER won their league, I think they end up here.
: : 6. Carson - A disappointing year considering their two impact transfers. I have heard some people say they shouldn't make it, but they would destroy everyone in D1.
: : 7. Birmingham - Very solid team, unfortunately they have to play Granada and ECR twice each and that messes with their record. If for some reason they get put in D1 they will be the favorite.
: : 8. Westchester - I like them at 8 because not only did they lose to Birmingham, but this would avoid first round league match-up if Granada Hills is 1.
: : Others: Venice, Legacy
: : I think there is fluidity in the top 3 and bottom four, depending on what happens the rest of the week. Then it is what the committee wants to do. Hopefully whoever is on the committee has actually seen these teams play a couple of times.
: : If anyone has any thoughts please share, always up for some positive discussion. But hoping for more than just "Team X is the best" and "Team Y is no good".
: : Will try to update again Friday night or Saturday morning before the seedings come out.
: Westchester has 2 wins over Carson by over 60 combined points, and a split vs Narbonne
: They will prob go 6, and Birmingham will get the 7 and play @ Fairfax.
: Somehow Maxpreps still has Westchester 4th, and the city does like to look at those rankings.
: I cant see them going that high, as Narbonne is a division winner.
: Birmingham will be the team screwed in this but as a third place league team, that is to be expected
I am guessing you are looking at Section D1 Standings, where Westchester is fifth, but taking out King-Drew who is fourth since they are not in the discussion.
City will not look at that, they will look at Maxpreps State Rankings. Currently, here is where the 8 teams are:
Granada - 23
Fairfax - 29
El Camino - 79
Narbonne - 147
Carson - 295
Birmingham - 204
Eagle Rock - 170
Westchester - 104
While these rankings rarely make sense, this is what there is and this is what is used.
Carson and Westchester will be moved lower due to losses against other Open teams. City rarely puts a team higher than one who beat them.
For example, ECR would never be ahead of Fairfax regardless of other record. This is why Legacy got top seed a couple years ago over Palisades. Palisades was clearly the best team in City, but lost to Leagcy so they got 2.
But then consider this:
Narbonne beat Westchester and Carson.
Carson beat Birmingham.
Birmingham beat Westchester.
Westchester beat Carson.
Out of those, Narbonne won their league so they will be higher. But the other three are a big mess. In the end, they may just try to arrange it so league teams don't meet in first round.
And to the poster who put Crenshaw in Open - they have played 11 games. Total. And have not played one high quality team. Beating up on bad teams doesn't get you to Open. Probably fighting with San Fernando for D2 crown.
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