Re: Some Numbers for you


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Posted by problems on October 31, 2020 at 00:07:27:

In Reply to: Some Numbers for you posted by Not Dave R. on October 30, 2020 at 22:38:37:

: California coronavirus numbers
: Total Cases 928,000
: Total deaths from coronavirus 17,581
: California population 39,510,000
: California mortality rate 1.89%
: California survival rate if catching coronavirus(any age) 98.11%
: Chance of catching coronavirus in California 2.34%
: Number of kids 17 years or younger in California - 9 million +
: Number of deaths kids 17 years or younger in CA - 2

: Can our kids start going to school and playing basketball yet?
: The emotional, physical, mental, and spiritual effect of coronavirus for this generation of kids will far outweigh any immediate medical concerns.


The vaccine probably works now but isn't FDA approved. If there is a chance the vaccine has side effects, no free world pharmaceutical company would risk their billions in profit by rushing the vaccine before ruling out serious side effects.

Russia has a vaccine they say works, but do not have the means to produce enough in a year to inoculate more than 70% of their citizens. Teachers in Russia don't want to take it, even though Putin's daughter tested it on herself and says it works.

Those stats you posted are not good predictors of what will happen this winter. It would be great if all teachers and school employees were the same age as the students, and if those students all lived alone and not with adults. But they don't, and regular school days have a lot of people involved that would be exposed.

Last March, we didn't have coronavirus spreading in large quantities until flu season was mostly over in CA. This year we have the entire flu season, when immune systems are weaker, and the spike is already upon us. The R=0 stayed around 1 all summer in LA County, so we failed miserably as a city and state. Protests and other irresponsible gatherings have put even a March-June basketball season in doubt.

Our only hope is that the virus has mutated to be more infectious and transmissable, but less deadly. Successful virii evolve to not kill their hosts, as this doesn't help them spread. Of course that evolution might take some time...


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