Posted by follow up on April 15, 2020 at 14:43:55:
In Reply to: Re: US Covid deaths about to pass 2018-19 flu season estimate posted by New data on April 15, 2020 at 09:23:44:
: : : : : https://twitter.com/texaselite_gold/status/1249901869864017921
: : : : : Please do not go out and train with anyone!!!!!
: : : : common flu kills 4 times more people. Yes, this is a bad virus.........so is HIV for those that have a care free life style. Stop running scared and put your big boy pants on. If you do have previous conditions, stay home. Common sense people. Why have you let them take your livelihood for scare tactics. Research and you will find governments have always used scare tactics to control.
: : :
: : : "The Lombardy region of Italy has about 10M people and nearly 11k deaths from Coronavirus. If everyone in Lombardy has already contracted Covid (which they likely haven't, making the death totals even scarier), that still means the death rate is 1.1%*, 11 times higher than the flu. If 40% of the Lombardy population has already been infected, that death rate rises to 2.7%. "
: : *My math was off there by a decimal place, if 1 million people were infected in Lombardy then the death rate is 1.1%. But no area of the world with that many people has even a 10% infection rate, indicating the death rate from Covid is still between 1-3%.
: :I think your numbers in Italy are still off - with the numbers you are providing the mortality rate is .0011(11k divided by 10m).
: The current mortality rate of the virus globally is .061 with the mortality rate in the United States being .039.
: Granted there are areas in the world and in the US where the rate is higher. Every model has now readjusted with new data after quarantine and unless there is just a massive outbreak the mortality rates globally or in the United States would be hard pressed to ever reach 1%.
: One percent of the world would be 77m and one percent of the US would be 3.2m - currently there are 120,000 deaths worldwide and 25,000 in the US. There's a long way to go to reach 1% especially with all the mitigation in place.
Not expecting 7 billion to get it, there would be a vaccine long before that.
Yes, the death rate for 11k out of 10M is 0.11%, (or 11/10000) of course thats assuming everyone in Lombardy has it - but there are only 60k confirmed cases.
Likely the true number of infections in Lombardy is about 10x higher, based on nearly 11k deaths.
Of course the death rate of infected people in this region is higher than others due to their hospitals not able to handle the surge.
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