US Covid deaths about to pass 2018-19 flu season estimate


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Posted by Jimmy John Cooter on April 14, 2020 at 21:34:31:

In Reply to: Re: Texas HS player gets Coronavirus posted by Billy Joe Bob on April 14, 2020 at 17:37:53:

: : https://twitter.com/texaselite_gold/status/1249901869864017921

: : Please do not go out and train with anyone!!!!!

: common flu kills 4 times more people. Yes, this is a bad virus.........so is HIV for those that have a care free life style. Stop running scared and put your big boy pants on. If you do have previous conditions, stay home. Common sense people. Why have you let them take your livelihood for scare tactics. Research and you will find governments have always used scare tactics to control.


The Lombardy region of Italy has about 10M people and nearly 11k deaths from Coronavirus. If everyone in Lombardy has already contracted Covid (which they likely haven't, making the death totals even scarier), that still means the death rate is 1.1%, 11 times higher than the flu. If 40% of the Lombardy population has already been infected, that death rate rises to 2.7%. Some of that was due to an overstretched healthcare system, luckily the USA(mainly NYC) hospitals barely made it through. Detroit also had issues.

By May 1, there will likely be more than 34.2k total deaths in our country from this disease, passing the estimate for the 2018-19 flu season. 61k was the actual number from the previous flu season. We will probably end up around that number by November, considering how few precautions we take against the flu compared to Covid, that should tell you never to compare the two.

Because of the transmission rate, hospitals in larger cities would be overwhelmed without shutdowns, causing more deaths and infecting other at-risk people. The deaths are still increasing in some areas...we saw what happened to New York, another day or two of that city staying open before the lockdown probably would have caused NYC hospitals to turn away thousands of sick people in these past two weeks. Hospitals were already stretched past their limit as is, even with a hospital ship in port and the makeshift hospitals springing up in Central Park.

But, thanks to the shutdown, some combination of masks/gloves/social distancing will allow us to re-open some of the country next month, and the rest by June.

Summer may not kill the virus but it would be easier to "single out" in those months, as the flu and common colds recede. Warmer weather leads to fewer runny noses, which in colder weather helps aerosolize the virus, keeping it in the air longer.


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